CNB forecast – Summer 2024
This forecast was published on 1 August 2024 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 26 July 2024. A detailed description of the current CNB forecast, which was prepared by economists from the Monetary Department, is available in the Monetary Policy Report – Summer 2024 and in the presentation for the CNB meeting with analysts.
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (%) | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation (%) | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | 1.2 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (%) | 5.1 | 3.8 | 3.3 |
| Exchange rate (CZK/EUR) | 25.1 | 25.0 | 24.7 |
Note: Forecast in bold
Headline inflation (in %)
| Headline inflation in 2024 Q3 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | August 2024 | September 2024 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 |
| 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.0% |
Inflation will be close to the 2% target for the rest of this year and stay there over the monetary policy horizon.
Monetary policy-relevant inflation (in %)
| Monetary policy-relevant inflation in 2024 Q3 and at the monetary policy horizon | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | August 2024 | September 2024 | 2025 Q3 | 2025 Q4 |
| 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.8% |
Monetary policy-relevant inflation will be slightly below headline inflation over the entire outlook.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
The economy will expand this year. Growth in economic activity will pick up further next year.
Interest rates 3M PRIBOR (in %)
Consistent with the baseline scenario of the forecast is a modest decline in market interest rates.
Exchange rate (CZK/EUR)
The koruna will return to gradual appreciation at the start of next year.
