CNB forecast – Spring 2025
This forecast, which was prepared by economists from the Monetary Department, was published on 7 May 2025 and (with some exceptions) is based on the data available as of 25 April 2025.
| 2025 | 2026 | |
|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation (%) | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Gross domestic product (annual changes in %) | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| 3M PRIBOR interest rates (%) | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| CZK/EUR exchange rate | 25.2 | 25.3 |
Note: Forecast in bold; monetary policy-relevant inflation is available in the background documents below.
Headline inflation (in %)
Headline inflation in 2025 Q2 and at the monetary policy horizon
| April 2025 | May 2025 | June 2025 | 2026 Q2 | 2026 Q3 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% |
Inflation will be slightly above the 2% target in 2025 and very close to it over the monetary policy horizon.
Gross domestic product (annual changes in %)
Growth in domestic economic activity will be around 2%.
3M PRIBOR interest rates (in %)
Consistent with the forecast is a decline in interest rates in 2025 Q2.
CZK/EUR Exchange rate
The koruna is depreciating slightly over the outlook horizon.
